Help me change my mind on mortgages!

Posted on March 13, 2007 by Felix

Brad Setser asks whether I’ve changed my mind about the mortgage market in the wake of today’s data and the market’s reaction to it. I haven’t really looked at either yet, and tomorrow I’m going to be spending the day at Disneyland. So do please use the comments section here to give me all the datapoints I need. Then I’ll answer his question on Thursday, probably.

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7 Responses to Help me change my mind on mortgages!

  1. tbelcher says:
    March 14, 2007 at 12:36 am

    I presume Brad is arguing that you’ve already spent time in Disneyland – the question being whether it was fantasyland or tomorrowland that you were in…

  2. Richard Black says:
    March 14, 2007 at 2:18 am

    Mark Thoma put a link on his site to a detailed comment on the Morgenson piece and your take on it at NakedCapitalism, “Reactions to the New York Times Mortgage Market Story:”

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/03/reactions-to-new-york-times-mortgage.html

    There’s a later post that might also be helpful:

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/03/tinkerbell-market.html

  3. tmcgee says:
    March 14, 2007 at 10:02 am

    well for one thing, the more the 10-year yield drops the better it is. being some 75 basis points below overnight rates certainly helps. and the weekly MBA data doesn’t certainly point to a collapse in the housing market. stagnation? sure. inventory overhang? yep. but it doesn’t appear yet like anything that would cold-cock the economy. nonetheless, i seem to be a card-carrying optimist these days. i still think corporate balance sheets matter more when it comes to the labor market, the ultimate source of any spillover. and so far so good. stock buybacks are all the rage with the leftover cash.

  4. Bernard Guerrero says:
    March 14, 2007 at 3:12 pm

    MBA data doesn’t certainly point to a collapse in the housing market.

    Bah, the panic atmosphere is driving me nuts! We’ve hit a record a whole freaking 4 bps above the worst we saw in 2002, and most of it isn’t even in the sub-prime sector. This is all premature goldbug/perma-bear triumphalism….

  5. Lorne Brown says:
    March 14, 2007 at 11:22 pm

    When in Disneyland, don’t forget to see the Alice in Wonderland attraction. When Alice says: “We’re not in Kansas anymore”, she’s really referring to the crash of 2007.

  6. Bernard Guerrero says:
    March 15, 2007 at 10:57 am

    When Alice says: “We’re not in Kansas anymore”, she’s really referring to the crash of 2007.

    Err, methinks you refer to non-Disney property “The Wizard of Oz” and the heroine of same, Dorothy.

  7. UK Home Mortgages says:
    March 30, 2007 at 3:32 pm

    I think that things will start to turn around soon in the home mortgage market..we’ll see.

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