The market is pricing
in Harry Potter’s death. I have only the vaguest knowledge of the Harry
Potter books, but I do have a certain amount of faith in markets. Therefore,
I believe that Harry Potter will indeed be killed off in the final book of the
series.
I’m not quite sure if my belief is justified or not. While it’s possible that
the bookies were receiving bets from people with inside information, I think
it’s more likely that most of the bets were simply from fans of the series,
who can only guess whether or not Harry will die. Can the sum total of ignorance
be reasonably reliable? Yes, I think. But we will find out for sure on July
21, should we be so inclined.
(Via Cowen)