Monthly Archives: January 2008

Musharraf on the Islamic Bomb

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Felix

Pervez Musharraf, speaking at Davos, is a bit peevish: We are a nuclear state. Why does the world insist on calling this an Islamic bomb? There is no Hindu bomb or Jew bomb or Buddhist Bomb or Christian Bomb. This … Continue reading →

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Equity Derivatives House of the Year

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Felix

An as-yet-unnamed trader at SocGen has somehow contrived to lose more than $7 billion by making bad directional bets on equity indices. Bloomberg’s Gregory Viscusi is on irony watch: "At first this seemed like a joke," said Nicolas Rutsaert, an … Continue reading →

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What Stock Market Volatility?

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Felix

The WSJ has a great little interactive feature today – or at least it would be great if it didn’t start talking at you the minute you opened it and every time you click on a new tab. Turn your … Continue reading →

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What if the Bears are Right?

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Felix

Let’s say – just for the sake of argument – that the bears are right, and that we’ve finally come to the end of a long capital-markets boom. Global equity markets are going to fall dramatically, thanks to falling corporate … Continue reading →

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Extra Credit, Soros Edition

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Felix

The worst market crisis in 60 years: Soros is bearish. Soros Says U.S. Recession Is ‘Almost Inevitable’; Soros Sees End of Dollar-Backed Credit Expansion: Bloomberg on Soros. The gloomy gospel according to George Soros: Leonard on Soros. Systemic Failure: Norris … Continue reading →

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Davos Round-Up

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Felix

Ned Phelps: Nice guy. And prescient, too: he put all his Nobel Prize money into bonds. Esther Dyson: Speaks fluent Russian. Mike Arrington: Rocked up in faded bluejeans and dirty white sneakers. Masters of the Universe not visibly impressed. Rupert … Continue reading →

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Davos Moment of the Day

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Felix

Igor Shevchenko, a Ukrainian lawyer, introduces himself to Walter Isaacson of the Aspen Institute; it just so happens (really!) that Shevchenko has a copy of Isaacson’s biography of Henry Kissinger in his bag. Isaacson signs it, of course, and then … Continue reading →

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The Fed’s 125bp Two-Step

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Felix

My blog entry about the surprise rate cut yesterday was very much a gut reaction, put out very quickly as my gate was being called at Heathrow. But it’s received a lot of attention in the blogosphere, and with 24 … Continue reading →

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Merger Arbitrage Site of the Day

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Felix

No more relying on Dana Cimilluca to find failed merger-arb trades! It turns out that a chap called Plamen Tsolov has created Arbitrage View, a web page with a continually-updated list of arbitrage opportunities in pending merger deals in the … Continue reading →

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But What Does He Think About Motherhood and Apple Pie?

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Felix

I just walked into the opening press conference at Davos, where the co-chairmen of the World Economic Forum are talking about what they are looking to talk about and achieve. Tony Blair is beaming admiringly at Henry Kissinger, but the … Continue reading →

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Davos: Bearishness Rules

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Felix

I’ve only just arrived in Davos, and already I’m wondering how I’m going to be able to cope: the scene here is far crazier than at any other gabfest I’ve been to. The smart people just blow it off altogether … Continue reading →

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Four Myths About the Stock Market

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Felix

1. Global stock markets plunged this week (until the Fed rode to the rescue) "on recession fears". You can argue the "decoupling" toss as much as you like, but there was absolutely no correlation between the degree that any given … Continue reading →

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Ben Stein Watch

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Felix

Is outsourced to Sandwichman. I don’t do Stein’s Yahoo columns, I’d go mad.

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Extra Credit, Wednesday Edition

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Felix

ISDA Sees Default Swaps Losses at $15 Billion, Not $250 Billion Self-Control, Delusion and Why Subscription Services Rule Wal-Mart Gives The New Yorker (And Forbes, Fortune, BizWeek etc) The Boot Does Senator Clinton Know How Little the United States Spends … Continue reading →

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Bernanke Hits the Panic Button

Posted on January 22, 2008 by Felix

It feels a long time ago right now, but if I recall correctly, Ben Bernanke was talking in a generally positive way at the end of last week about the effects of a well-targeted fiscal stimulus. Well, so much for … Continue reading →

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MBIA: The Longs Fight Back

Posted on January 22, 2008 by Felix

Have you read anything positive about MBIA recently? The short-sellers – principally Bill Ackman, of course, but also Whitney Tilson – have been dominating the conversation, and since they’ve also been making a huge amount of money one can understand … Continue reading →

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Extra Credit, Tuesday Edition

Posted on January 22, 2008 by Felix

For Clinton, Government as Economic Prod: Leonhardt interviews the favorite for the presidency on her economic policy. Why 2008 isn’t 1971 (the first ever Curious Capitalist list!) Just When I Thought I Was Out: The Epicurean Dealmaker vs Martin Wolf, … Continue reading →

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Value-per-Employee Datapoint of the Day

Posted on January 21, 2008 by Felix

Sun has bought MySQL – a company which gives its main product away for free – for $1 billion, or about $2.5 million per employee. Which is pretty much exactly the same valuation per employee as the market puts on … Continue reading →

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Counterfeiting Statistics: Still Atrocious

Posted on January 21, 2008 by Felix

Do you remember the atrocious and disappointing OECD report on counterfeiting? Rather than come up with a realistic estimate for the value of counterfeits traded worldwide, it came out with a hugely exaggerated "ceiling" of $200 billion. All the same, … Continue reading →

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The Politics of Equity Capital Inflows

Posted on January 21, 2008 by Felix

If a country runs a current-account deficit, that means that it’s going to run an equal and opposite capital-account surplus: it’s simple economic mathematics. And when the federal budget deficit is a bit over 1% of GDP while the current-account … Continue reading →

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Gawker’s resurgence

Posted on January 21, 2008 by Felix

I am so losing my bet. Thanks to Tom Cruise, Gawker is going to easily set a new record for pageviews this month. Remember that the old record was 11.5 million pageviews in the month of October; Gawker got 5.3 … Continue reading →

Posted in Not economics | 1 Comment

Blogger Sans Email

Posted on January 19, 2008 by Felix

Blogger disaster! I spent all Friday without any email, and it’s looking increasingly as though it’s not going to get fixed until Thursday at the earliest. This is going to be interesting – especially as I’m meant to be going … Continue reading →

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Extra Credit, Weekend Edition

Posted on January 19, 2008 by Felix

Do we need a recession to purge the rottenness out of our system? It seems the Americans tend to say no, while the Europeans are more likely to say yes. Bloomberg Still Deciding Whether to Buy Presidency: “At this point, … Continue reading →

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Ken Lewis’s Call Option on Countrywide

Posted on January 18, 2008 by Felix

The most recent deal not going according to the merger-arb playbook is Bank of America’s acquisition of Countrywide. The takeover takeunder is valued at $6.47 per share, but Countrywide is trading at only $5.11. How come? Well, have a look … Continue reading →

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Another Hedge Fund Tracker Launches

Posted on January 18, 2008 by Felix

No one would ever design a mutual fund tracker, which returned a little bit less than mutual funds in aggregate. The reason is obvious: mutual funds in aggregate always underperform the market as a whole, so you’d be much better … Continue reading →

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