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Monthly Archives: January 2008
How Merrill Spun its Write-Down News
Shares in Merrill Lynch are flat this morning: investors seem unconcerned about the news that the company will take a whopping $15 billion write-down in the fourth quarter. Last month, after Merrill got a $5.6 billion cash injection from Temasek … Continue reading
Why BofA Bought Countrywide
Countrywide’s Angelo Mozilo has had many opportunities, over the years, to sell his company for a huge sum to Bank of America. There’s only one reason why he would say yes to a deal now, at $4 billion, when he … Continue reading
Extra Credit, Friday Edition
RiskMetrics’ IPO promises payoff: Soon, Institutional Shareholder Services will be advising how shareholders should vote on its own parent. NYSE Euronext Is in Talks to Buy Amex Hans Monderman, Engineer of Livable Streets, 1947-2008
Posted in remainders
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Blackstone: The Stock Buyback Which Isn’t
Stock buybacks are good news for shareholders for two reasons. Firstly, they increase demand for the stock, which helps boost the share price – but that effect is one-off, and temporary, and mostly benefits the shareholders who sell their stock … Continue reading
Posted in private equity, stocks
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BofA-Countrywide: An Acquisition Which Makes Sense
Countrywide shares are up over 40% today as the WSJ reports the company might be taken over by Bank of America.
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The CNBC-PZE Fiasco
It’s a fun game, this stock-market malarkey. You watch CNBC, see a talking head recommend a stock ticker symbol, and then jump onto your computer to execute the trade. It’s so easy! And, for all that investors are continually advised … Continue reading
Posted in stocks
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Bernanke Now Fully On Board the Rate-Cutting Bus
Was Ben Bernanke reading this morning’s New York Times? "Many on Wall Street," wrote Louis Uchitelle, "argue that with the stock market falling, unemployment rising and the economy flirting with a recession, Mr. Bernanke should be dealing with the situation … Continue reading
Posted in fiscal and monetary policy
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International Capital Flows Datapoint of the Day
The most money the IMF ever lent to the emerging world in one quarter: $13.7 billion (Q3, 2001) Total capital infusions from emerging-market sovereigns into US and European banks in Q4 2007: $28.4 billion (Via Setser, natch; he reckons that … Continue reading
Posted in economics
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It’s OK for Tony Blair to Cash Out
Yves Smith says that Tony Blair’s decision to work as a part-time adviser to JP Morgan is "reprehensible". I’m more sanguine about it. Yes, the amount that Blair is pulling in is huge: 5 million pounds for his memoirs, millions … Continue reading
Posted in Politics
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Can Pandit Cut Citi’s Dividend?
In the WSJ report on Citi shoring up its capital base, we’re told that a dividend cut is now a real possibility: The board of Citigroup is expected to meet on Monday, a day before it reports earnings, and to … Continue reading
Capital Injections at Citi and Merrill: The Shorter Version
The WSJ’s massive front-page story this morning, headlined "Citigroup, Merrill Seek More Foreign Capital", is an important one. But you might well not have time to read the entire 2,365-word article, so let me summarize it for you. Here’s the … Continue reading
Extra Credit, Thursday Edition
Atomic Madeleines: Daniel Davies against nuclear power. Yale to Use More Endowment Funds: Both Yale and Harvard now pledge to spend 5% of their endowments next year. Eat the Bankers: The Epicurean Dealmaker on Wall Street bonuses.
Posted in remainders
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Why Microcredit Works
Karol Boudreaux and Tyler Cowen look at microcredit in the Wilson Quarterly. This is my favorite insight: Sometimes microcredit leads to more savings rather than more debt. That sounds paradoxical, but borrowing in one asset can be a path toward … Continue reading
Posted in development
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Has Sam Heyman Lost $1 Billion on Sallie Mae?
Sam Heyman is a hedge fund manager, corporate raider, and merger arbitrageur. He came massively unstuck in Australia in May, when his merger-arb tactics relating to the acquisition Qantas by Airline Partners Australia were described as "an elaborate and cunning … Continue reading
Posted in Portfolio
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Why Goldman Sachs Should Implement a Clawback Mechanism
Raghuram Rajan attacks banks’ compensation systems in the in the FT, to applause from Yves Smith, Alea, and Alexander Campbell. The problem, says Rajan, is that bankers get paid enormous sums of money for generating "fake alpha": profits which will … Continue reading
Was New Hampshire a Truly Historic Result?
Justin Wolfers is unapologetic in the wake of Hillary Clinton winning the New Hampshire primary. Clinton’s victory, he says, was "one of the most surprising upsets in U.S. political history": Election-eve trading had suggested that Sen. Obama had a 92% … Continue reading
Posted in prediction markets
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In Praise of New NYC Skyscrapers
Back in November, the NYT’s Nicolai Ouroussoff gave a rave review to Jean Nouvel’s proposed new midtown skyscraper, destined for a narrow lot next to the Museum of Modern Art. It "promises to be the most exhilarating addition to the … Continue reading
Posted in architecture
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Can Politicians Boost Stock Prices?
There’s an interesting letter in the WSJ today, from John Callister in Ithaca. Callister has about $700,000 invested in the stock market, and all he cares about, in terms of the presidential election, is which candidate will make that sum … Continue reading
A Simple InTrade Arbitrage
While I’m on the subject of prediction markets, I might also add that they’re not even internally consistent, some of the time. Brian Weatherson has looked at arbitrage opportunities across markets, but they exist within markets as well. Here’s some … Continue reading
Posted in prediction markets
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Trading Obama and Clinton, Redux
Paul Krugman is right: prediction markets are looking pretty pathetic this morning. On Monday I noted that Obama had become the Democratic heir presumptive more or less overnight, saying that "the speed with which Clinton and Obama have traded places … Continue reading
Posted in prediction markets
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Regulating Carbon Offsets
Will the FTC get involved in auditing carbon-offset providers? Louise Story, in the NYT, hints that it might. The present situation is a mess, and it would be great if someone could come in and clean it up. But I … Continue reading
Posted in climate change
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Extra Credit, Wednesday Edition
Against Fiscal Stimulus Questioning an Adviser’s Advice: Sorkin on Lipton. Turns Out Judges Don’t Like "Efficient" Servicers: A Tanta classic. Ability to track risk has shrunk "forever" -Moody’s Daniel Grant vs Tyler Cowen on the capital-gains treatment of artworks. Deborah … Continue reading
Posted in remainders
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Innovations in Coffee
The best consequence of all the Starbucks news of late, at least for me, was Mike Mandel’s blog entry on the subject over at Business Week. Mandel wonders whether the slowdown in US Starbucks sales is an early sign of … Continue reading
Posted in consumption
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The Confusing Number of Value-Weighted Index Funds
I’m fascinated by this profile of Jonathan Steinberg and his Wisdom Tree ETFs. Instead of going overweight companies with the highest market capitalization, as most index funds do, Steinberg’s funds go overweight companies with the highest dividends. Wisdom Tree’s Jeremy … Continue reading
Posted in investing
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No Respite for Bear Stearns
On Friday, I noted that Bear Stearns was trading below its book value ($84.09 per share), and said that the "next milestone to fall" would take place if the share price dropped past $73.41, where the bank has a market … Continue reading