Monthly Archives: January 2008

Ouch

Posted on January 4, 2008 by Felix

Bill Ackman’s short bets seem to be rather better than his longs. Dow Jones reckons that he made over half a billion dollars in 2007 shorting MBIA and Ambac Financial. Which is good, because his long position in Target seems … Continue reading →

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Payrolls: Still Best Ignored

Posted on January 4, 2008 by Felix

The day after the Iowa caucus, with the media full of horse-race coverage of presidential politics, is a good one to miss the news of the monthly jobs report. Good. The non-farm payroll report, which comes out on the first … Continue reading →

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Extra Credit, Friday Edition

Posted on January 4, 2008 by Felix

Performance measurement and the challenge of active management: A basic hurdle any active investor should be able to clear. Milan introduces traffic charge: A €10 congestion charge to enter the city center, but you can get around it by installing … Continue reading →

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Blogonomics: Good vs Popular Blog Entries

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Felix

Now that Gawker Media’s new pay scheme has been made public, Brian Lam of Gizmodo (a Gawker Media property) explains what the downside is, in practice, of paying for traffic. Gizmodo was one of the four blogs where the new … Continue reading →

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The Power of Round Numbers

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Felix

On Wednesday, Richard Arens decided to celebrate the new year by having a bit of fun. He’s a "local" who trades for his own account on the floor of the Nymex, and he bought exactly one crude oil contract at … Continue reading →

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The Economics of Tom Wolfe

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Felix

Tom Wolfe has left the publisher where he spent his entire career, Farrar, Straus & Giroux, and decamped to Little, Brown instead. Why? Money, of course: People involved in the negotiations said on Wednesday that Mr. Wolfe’s advance for the … Continue reading →

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State Street Corp Should be Falling, not Rising

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Felix

Another one for the annals of bizarre stock moves: State Street Corp, the parent of State Street Global Advisors is surging to new all-time highs today. This is on the news that the company has breached its fiduciary duties to … Continue reading →

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How a Free WSJ.com can Beat Yahoo Finance

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Felix

PaidContent’s Joseph Wiesenthal has found a research note from Bear Stearns analyst Spencer Wang which is bearish on the revenue prospects for a free WSJ.com, compared to the amount it currently generates in subscriptions. Bloggers love to fisk Wall Street … Continue reading →

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Latin State Oil Company Datapoint of the Day

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Felix

In 2006, Venezuela’s PDVSA had revenues of $100 billion, on which it paid $36 billion in taxes. In 2007, Mexico’s Pemex had revenues of $100 billion, on which it paid $54 billion in taxes. (From "Woes mount for Mexico’s state … Continue reading →

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The Importance of Bonuses

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Felix

Roger Ehrenberg has an end-of-year post about when he was happiest. He talks about his personal life, but he also talks about his professional life: There are two distinct times that stand out. The first is when I was 30 … Continue reading →

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Extra Credit, Thursday Edition

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Felix

Will Home Prices Hit Bottom by June? In flagrante delicto: Tim Price’s picks for 2008. Sensible. Democrats: More Than Health Care: David Leonhardt compares the economic policies of Clinton and Obama. Three Different Cures for Three Types of Financial Crises: … Continue reading →

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Subprime: Gross Losses are Much Bigger Than Net Losses

Posted on January 2, 2008 by Felix

I’d like to thank Floyd Norris for responding to my blog entry last week about one of his columns. Norris is a blogger in his own right, of course, but it’s always good to see venerable journalists venturing off their … Continue reading →

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Two Trades for 2008

Posted on January 2, 2008 by Felix

I don’t make predictions. But, what the hell, let’s see how these two trades turn out over the next year. The first is highly speculative, and individual investors aren’t even allowed to do it; the second is highly defensive, and … Continue reading →

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The Most-Traded Stocks of the Year

Posted on January 2, 2008 by Felix

Here’s an interesting exercise: compare this table, of the largest US companies by market capitalization, to this table, of the top stocks in 2007 by dollars traded. For instance, more money changed hands trading Apple shares than trading Exxon Mobil … Continue reading →

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Jingle Mail, in Practice

Posted on January 2, 2008 by Felix

A textbook case of jingle mail: I got an agreement of sale today from a realtor looking for a prequal on a shortsale , the buyer lives next door , he has a current mortgage for $800,000 on a home … Continue reading →

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Blogonomics: The Gawker Media Pay Scheme

Posted on January 2, 2008 by Felix

Gawker Media has moved to a pay-for-traffic business model, and Valleywag’s Paul Boutin has the full memo. Essentially, Gawker Media writers will now be paid in any given month the greater of two numbers: either their base pay, or the … Continue reading →

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Does LVMH Rule the Champagne Market?

Posted on January 2, 2008 by Felix

Christina Passariello has an interesting WSJ article today on LVMH’s Champagne business, explaining at some length how the French luxury-goods giant sources all the grapes it needs to be the world’s biggest Champagne merchant. I do worry, though, that in … Continue reading →

Posted in consumption, stocks | 1 Comment

How I’ve Changed My Mind on Mortgages

Posted on January 2, 2008 by Felix

The Edge Annual Question this year asks a group of (mostly) scientists what they have changed their mind about and why. I’m no scientist, but this is as good an opportunity as any to make explicit two things, both mortgage-related, … Continue reading →

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Stock Market Datapoint of the Day

Posted on January 1, 2008 by Felix

Dean Baker: Investors in stock have not done very well over the last decade. The S&P 500 rose by a cumulative total of 52.6 percent from December 1997 to December 2007. After adjusting for inflation, the increase was 17.3 percent, … Continue reading →

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My Predictions for 2008

Posted on January 1, 2008 by Felix

Teresa, a loyal reader, writes: I was wondering, can you please post a blog with all your predictions for 2008? president? world series? best S&P sector? worst S&P sector? favorite stock pick for the year 2008? favorite dow 30 component … Continue reading →

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