Monthly Archives: February 2008

How and Whether Cisco Helps Sub-Saharan Africa

Posted on February 14, 2008 by Felix

One of the biggest sponsors of the World Economic Forum at Davos this year was Cisco. That’s entirely natural: Cisco is huge and global and powerful, which is all you need in Davos. And Cisco does its part to make … Continue reading →

Posted in development | Comments Off

MBIA Fires Back at Ackman

Posted on February 14, 2008 by Felix

As Congress holds hearings on bond insurers, it’s worth reading MBIA’s official response to Bill Ackman. There’s nothing in there about “the unscrupulous and dangerous market manipulation of short-sellers,” as Herb Greenberg feared. Rather, it’s a pretty sober analysis, which … Continue reading →

Posted in insurance, stocks | Comments Off

Ben Bernanke, Optimist

Posted on February 14, 2008 by Felix

I actually read Ben Bernanke’s testimony today all the way through to the end – this should get me a gold star from Barry Ritholtz, at the very least. The not-particularly-surprising news, of course, is that he’ll continue to cut … Continue reading →

Posted in fiscal and monetary policy | Comments Off

Yahoo and the Failed M&A Deals

Posted on February 14, 2008 by Felix

Stephen Grocer has a great post about Yahoo’s M&A track record: the companies it did buy and shouldn’t have, as well as the companies it didn’t buy and should have. In the former camp: the $3 billion acquisition of GeoCities, … Continue reading →

Posted in M&A, technology | Comments Off

IKB: The Unnecessary Bailout

Posted on February 14, 2008 by Felix

Why is the German government bailing out IKB? It’s small, it’s not systemically important (although it is politically important, which is probably the key here), and there’s all sorts of moral hazard involved in keeping this insolvent bank afloat. Willem … Continue reading →

Posted in banking | Comments Off

Auction-Rate Securities: Not Such a Big Deal

Posted on February 14, 2008 by Felix

I’m not a big fan of the WSJ’s front-page story about trouble in the auction-rate securities market today. It’s long – over 2,000 words – which means that most readers won’t make it all the way past the jump to … Continue reading →

Posted in bonds and loans | Comments Off

$3.5 Billion Building Up for Sale

Posted on February 14, 2008 by Felix

The most expensive building in the world is up for sale, with a $3.5 billion price tag. Its owner, Harry Macklowe, has been served a default notice, which has forced him to put his greatest asset on the block. It’ll … Continue reading →

Posted in housing | Comments Off

Extra Credit, Thursday Edition

Posted on February 14, 2008 by Felix

Handicapping the VP Race Systemic risk rises: correlation hits new highs: Sam Jones is really good on this stuff. Apple Shares Rolling Downhill: "As of Feb. 12, Apple shares had dropped 36% since the beginning of the year. Research In … Continue reading →

Posted in remainders | Comments Off

Eight out of Ten

Posted on February 13, 2008 by Felix

On a scale from one to ten, how good of a driver are you? About 8, you say? Have you ever noticed that when you ask someone to rate their proficiency, on a scale of 1-10, in something that they … Continue reading →

Posted in economics | Comments Off

The CBO Prefers a Carbon Tax to Cap-and-Trade

Posted on February 13, 2008 by Felix

I’m a supporter of a cap-and-trade system over a carbon tax. But I have to say that Terry Dinan, of CBO’s Microeconomic Studies Division, has the best argument in favor of a carbon tax over cap-and-trade that I’ve yet seen. … Continue reading →

Posted in climate change | Comments Off

Barack Obama Datapoint of the Day

Posted on February 13, 2008 by Felix

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA contract last traded at 51 – which means that, at least according to InTrade, and as of right now, Barack Obama is probably going to be the next president of the United States. (HT: Mankiw)

Posted in Politics, prediction markets | Comments Off

Vishing for Credit

Posted on February 13, 2008 by Felix

Is it possible that, by conducting a telephone survey, one can reliably conclude that identity fraud costs Americans $45 billion per year? I suspect it isn’t. And I’m even more suspicious of enormous jumps like this: Fraudsters are turning to … Continue reading →

Posted in personal finance | Comments Off

China Datapoint of the Day, Aluminum Edition

Posted on February 13, 2008 by Felix

Back in 2004, Alcan put together a slide show on China’s role in the aluminum industry. It included this chart, showing Chinese aluminum consumption from 1960 onwards, and anticipating a rise of 82% between 2004 and 2010, to 7.3 kg … Continue reading →

Posted in china, commodities | Comments Off

UBS: Where Metaphors Collide

Posted on February 13, 2008 by Felix

Robert Cookson has got his hands on a research note from UBS’s Geraud Charpin. The gist is simple: debt is cheap, and it’s getting cheaper: We are in value territory. The iTraxx index is close to 110bp when its fair … Continue reading →

Posted in bonds and loans | Comments Off

Evan Bayh is Worried by Sovereign Wealth Funds

Posted on February 13, 2008 by Felix

Senator Evan Bayh takes to the op-ed pages of the WSJ today to warn darkly of the threats posed by sovereign wealth funds. Such funds should be allowed to invest in the US he says (so big of him!), but … Continue reading →

Posted in ben stein watch, economics, Politics | Comments Off

Large Businesses: Still Upbeat

Posted on February 13, 2008 by Felix

In every major market, the business media generally live and work in the city which acts the country’s financial capital. As a result, it’s easy to misinterpret choppiness in financial markets as real weakness in the broader economy. I’m not … Continue reading →

Posted in economics | Comments Off

Gene Sequencing Datapoint of the Day

Posted on February 13, 2008 by Felix

Cost of sequencing Craig Venter’s an anonymous genome at the human genome project: $3 billion, over 10 years Cost of sequencing James Watson’s genome: $1 million, over 2 months Cost of sequencing an anonymous African’s genome: $100,000, over 1 month … Continue reading →

Posted in science | Comments Off

Extra Credit, Wednesday Edition

Posted on February 13, 2008 by Felix

A climate for old men: Charles Komanoff on the Kheel Plan, the revolutionary proposal to make all public transit in NYC free. It’s actually not nearly as crazy as it sounds. T-Mobile Loses Starbucks; AT&T Becomes Wi-Fi Hotspot Giant Tolkien … Continue reading →

Posted in remainders | Comments Off

The Arithmetic of the Microsoft-Yahoo Bid

Posted on February 12, 2008 by Felix

Dan Gross, looking at Yahoo’s share price, says that investors assume the Microsoft-Yahoo deal won’t happen. Which is weird, because Yahoo’s share price has actually been gaining on Microsoft’s bid ever since the announcement was made. I think Gross is … Continue reading →

Posted in M&A, stocks, technology | Comments Off

Are Suburbs the new Inner Cities?

Posted on February 12, 2008 by Felix

The Atlantic doesn’t have a subcription firewall any more, but it does impose a pretty substantial delay between sending the magazine out to subscribers and putting it up online. As a result, I can’t (yet) link to Christopher Leinberger’s excellent … Continue reading →

Posted in cities | Comments Off

When Falling House Prices are a Blessing

Posted on February 12, 2008 by Felix

In the US, the property bubble was big, but it wasn’t nearly as big as in the UK. Everywhere there was a property bubble in the US, rising house prices were a good thing for the city in question – … Continue reading →

Posted in housing | Comments Off

Chart of the Day: Debt Tranche Correlation

Posted on February 12, 2008 by Felix

This is nerdy (the chart’s from Alea, the finance nerd’s blog of choice), but it’s also interesting. Jane Baird reports: Correlation on the five-year investment-grade Markit iTraxx Europe index — a measure of investor fears of a system-wide crash — … Continue reading →

Posted in bonds and loans, charts | Comments Off

Why Does Google Oppose the Microsoft-Yahoo Deal?

Posted on February 12, 2008 by Felix

Sam Gustin reckons that Google, for all its protestations, could actually benefit from a Yahoo-Microsoft merger. I’m more likely to take Google at its word, but Sam says that Google is playing a sophisticated game: trying to delay the merger … Continue reading →

Posted in M&A, technology | Comments Off

The Muni Insurance Racket

Posted on February 12, 2008 by Felix

In the March issue of Portfolio, Jesse Eisinger says that the municipal bond-insurance business is a racket. Back in December I noted that US municipalities pay $2 billion a year to the monolines for the dubious privilege of receiving a … Continue reading →

Posted in insurance | Comments Off

Emerging Markets: Safer than Banks

Posted on February 12, 2008 by Felix

I’m at the Fitch Latin America Sovereign Hotspots conference at the technologically-challenged Warwick Hotel this morning, where the irrepressibly quotable David Rolley, of Loomis Sayles, just appeared on a panel. Rolley’s always interesting, partly because he doesn’t confine himself to … Continue reading →

Posted in bonds and loans, emerging markets | Comments Off

Monthly Archives: February 2008

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