With David Lereah gone,
it seems that the National Association of Realtors is becoming more bearish
in its forecasts
(if not its spin).
thinks that the NAR’s capitulation to reality is likely a bullish indicator,
but I’m not quite that sanguine: I think it’s more a desperate attempt to reclaim
some modicum of credibility, although the likes of Dean
Baker will never trust the NAR, no matter what they say.
Personally, I don’t believe any forecasts at all, whether they’re bullish or
bearish. Niether the NAR nor anybody else has any privileged information about
what house prices are going to do over the next year or two – all of this
is no more than glorified guesswork, and should really be treated as such.