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Category Archives: banking
Why Merrill’s Falling
I liked the Merrill Lynch earnings call this morning, and when I posted my take on it just after the markets opened, it seemed as though the bank’s stock would avoid much in the way of punishment for its enormous … Continue reading
Bankers’ Pay: Should be Changed, Won’t be Changed
Why pick on banks, and bankers? Steve Waldman tells us: It’s not because they’re bad people. Most bankers are very nice people. We should pick on them because, as Andrew says, banks intermediate. They are a point where all the … Continue reading
Why Goldman Sachs was Short CDOs
Michael Lewis has a very peculiar column up at Bloomberg today, tied to Kate Kelly’s December 14 WSJ story about the subprime traders at Goldman Sachs. Lewis says that Goldman’s executives essentially overruled their own traders, thereby saving themselves from … Continue reading
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Merrill: How to do a Conference Call Right
I wasn’t on the Merrill call this morning, but David Gaffen was, and it seems from his live-blog – and the Merrill share price – that John Thain just gave the market a masterclass in spinning negative announcements. Rember that … Continue reading
The Bigger the Bank, the Better the Return
Update: I got this one wrong: see the comments for all the gory detail. Big-bank stocks are riskier than small-bank stocks, which means they go up more than small banks do in up markets, and they go down more than … Continue reading
Whatever Happened to Citicorp?
Dana Cimilluca notes that shares in Citigroup, today, are below the level at which shares in Citicorp were trading before it merged with Travelers. Now, that’s not necessarily a fair comparison: Citigroup, today, has a market capitalization of $135 billion, … Continue reading
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Why is The Weill Family Foundation Injecting Capital into Citigroup?
Among the investors bailing out Citigroup with new equity capital is The Weill Family Foundation, a charitable foundation set up by Sandy Weill. Now the way that these charitable foundations work, they generally give away some small amount (maybe 5%) … Continue reading
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Citi: Negative Revenues
I’ll leave the live-blogging of the Citi conference call (slides here) to David Gaffen and Floyd Norris. Norris has already made two excellent points: he’s wondering why Citi’s still paying a dividend at all, and he’s noted that US revenues … Continue reading
Why China Doesn’t Want to Invest in Citigroup
The WSJ’s Rick Carew reports today that the Chinese government might prevent the latest proposed injection of Chinese capital into a troubled US institution. For a good backgrounder on where the Chinese government is coming from, it’s worth checking out … Continue reading
How Merrill Spun its Write-Down News
Shares in Merrill Lynch are flat this morning: investors seem unconcerned about the news that the company will take a whopping $15 billion write-down in the fourth quarter. Last month, after Merrill got a $5.6 billion cash injection from Temasek … Continue reading
Why BofA Bought Countrywide
Countrywide’s Angelo Mozilo has had many opportunities, over the years, to sell his company for a huge sum to Bank of America. There’s only one reason why he would say yes to a deal now, at $4 billion, when he … Continue reading
BofA-Countrywide: An Acquisition Which Makes Sense
Countrywide shares are up over 40% today as the WSJ reports the company might be taken over by Bank of America.
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Can Pandit Cut Citi’s Dividend?
In the WSJ report on Citi shoring up its capital base, we’re told that a dividend cut is now a real possibility: The board of Citigroup is expected to meet on Monday, a day before it reports earnings, and to … Continue reading
Capital Injections at Citi and Merrill: The Shorter Version
The WSJ’s massive front-page story this morning, headlined "Citigroup, Merrill Seek More Foreign Capital", is an important one. But you might well not have time to read the entire 2,365-word article, so let me summarize it for you. Here’s the … Continue reading
Why Goldman Sachs Should Implement a Clawback Mechanism
Raghuram Rajan attacks banks’ compensation systems in the in the FT, to applause from Yves Smith, Alea, and Alexander Campbell. The problem, says Rajan, is that bankers get paid enormous sums of money for generating "fake alpha": profits which will … Continue reading
No Respite for Bear Stearns
On Friday, I noted that Bear Stearns was trading below its book value ($84.09 per share), and said that the "next milestone to fall" would take place if the share price dropped past $73.41, where the bank has a market … Continue reading
Can Alan Schwartz Rescue Bear Stearns?
This time last year, Bear Stearns was trading at a hundred and seventy something dollars per share. Today, it closed at seventy something dollars per share, well below its book value of $84. That’s all you need to know to … Continue reading
Witchcraft, and the Profitability of Goldman Sachs
Timothy Burke has a long piece up on the limits of rationality; Lance Knobel blurbs it as "the most fascinating post-Iowa analysis I’ve read", but it’s not really about Iowa, and although it’s mainly about politics it’s not only about … Continue reading
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Bear Stearns: Now Trading Below Book Value
Bear Stearns is being clobbered today, down more than 5% to just $79 per share. And it’s passed a major milestone, too. Here’s its fourth-quarter earnings report: Book value on November 30, 2007 was $84.09 per share, based on 136.2 … Continue reading
Uncovering Material Information at Merrill Lynch
It’s the bottomless write-downs! According to William Tanona of Goldman Sachs, the write-downs we’ve already seen at Citigroup and Merrill Lynch aren’t even close to being final. Indeed, he reckons that both banks will see 11-figure write-downs in the fourth … Continue reading
Posted in banking, regulation
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Why is Temasek Buying Into Merrill?
Pranay Gupte has an excellent profile of Temasek, the Singaporean sovereign wealth fund which has just invested $4.4 billion in Merrill Lynch. Nobly, he uses the word “nepotism” – which is more than the Financial Times is happy doing. But … Continue reading
How to Avoid Jinxing a Conference Call: Don’t Show Up!
Did Jimmy Cayne learn a lesson from Al Lord’s disastrous earnings call on Wednesday? Lord was largely responsible for a 20% fall in his company’s share price after he was overly aggressive with analysts. Yesterday, Cayne, who’s not exactly noted … Continue reading
Your Guide to SWF Bank Investments
Here’s a handy cut-out-and-keep guide to SWF bank investments, in the wake of the latest speculation about Merrill Lynch selling a stake to Singapore’s Temasek. Date Bank Fund Country Size March 06 Standard Chartered Temasek Singapore $4 billion November 07 … Continue reading
Was Ralph Cioffi Singlehandedly Responsible for Everything Which Went Wrong of Late?
Ralph Cioffi must be feeling pretty beleaguered at the moment. A few months ago, he was just a hedge-fund manager whose bets went horribly wrong. Recently, he learned that he’s being investigated to see whether he committed outright fraud. And … Continue reading
Posted in banking, bonds and loans, hedge funds, law
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How Negative Earnings Don’t Seem to Matter
When it comes to earnings, Wall Street wants guidance. Here’s the cri de coeur from Societe Generale’s Bill Kavaler Cavalier, during the notorious conference call with Sallie Mae’s Al Lord yesterday: We’re trying to put together projections here, Al. We’re … Continue reading