Category Archives: bonds and loans

New ABX Mortgage Index Still Looks Ugly

The much-followed ABX index of subprime mortgage bonds rolled over yesterday.
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Low Rates: Dead or Alive?

It’s the duel of the newsweekly pundits! Is God dead, or is God alive? (And
by God, of course, I mean the era of low interest rates.)
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China Moves Out of Treasuries to Support the Mortgage Market

The Bush administration is very serious about it getting China to support the market in mortgage-backed securities.
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Staying Sanguine About the Bear Stearns Losses

DealBook
today sets up a mini cage match between me and Janet Tavakoli:
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Why Highly-Rated CDO Tranches are a Bad Bet

Lets’s say you are given a choice between two AAA-rated bonds. Both have the
same probability of default, which is very low. But Bond X defaults pretty randomly,
while Bond Y defaults only during times of economic catastrophe. Which would
you prefer?
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Do Portfolio Managers Model the Illiquidity Discount?

Neil Shah of Reuters brings up the perennial
debate
about "mark to model" behavior among fund managers.
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When Issuers, Not Investors, Drive Rates Higher

Justin Lahart says that if you buy a high-return investment,
you ought
to know
it’s likely to be high-risk as well.
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Why Enormous Personal Debt Means a More Vibrant Economy

Chris Dillow finds
a silver lining
to the ever-increasing amounts of leverage bidding up asset
prices around the world.
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Real Estate Leverage Datapoint of the Day

What
on earth are the lenders
to buyers of office buildings
thinking?
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When Papers Promise But Don’t Deliver, CDO Edition

I continue my search
for someone who can shed light on exactly what happens to the alphabet soup
of MBS and CDO and CDS when subprime default rates rise.
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Trying To Make Sense of the Mortgage-Backed Market

Andrew
Leonard
says that I’m "a voice of calm and restraint when the rest
of the econo-blogosphere is racing to the windows to see if the sky has started
to rain suicidal investment bankers". Always happy to help. So let me revisit
the issue of US mortgage-backed bonds, and try to put yesterday’s panic into
a bit of context.
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How To Get To AAA

In the CDO market, I’m not convinced that overcollateralization always works particularly well.
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Why the S&P-Triggered Subprime Selloff Makes No Sense

S&P’s announcement today tells us nothing that we haven’t known for months about the subprime market. So count me utterly baffled by the market reaction.
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Blogging Risks in the CDO Market

After having my coffee
with Armond Budish
this morning, I found myself in the neighborhood of my
old offices at Roubini Global Economics,
so I popped in to say hi. Nouriel
was there, extremely alert and rested for someone who’d made two trips to Singapore
in the space of one week, and so was Brad
Setser
, who, being Brad, wanted to talk about the potential systemic consequences
of a rebalancing of Arab states’ foreign exchange reserves.
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Crazy Leverage in the Hilton Deal

Russ Winter notes that Blackstone’s acquisition of Hilton
hotels doesn’t make
a lot of sense
from a cashflow perspective.
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Posted in bonds and loans, private equity | 1 Comment

Ralph Cioffi’s Failed Liquidity Arbitrage

Veryan Allen has a neat riposte to anybody who claims that
the meltdown at Bear Stearns’ credit funds shows how dangerous hedge funds can
be: the Bear Stearns funds weren’t
hedge funds
!
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When Mortgage Derivatives Get Included in CDOs

Antony Currie of Breaking Views, who’s been following the
mortgage mess very closely, emails me with some color about the degree to which
derivatives – credit default swaps, or CDSs – are a part of the
CDOs that everybody seems to be so worried about these days.
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More on CDOs and Derivatives

There are a lot of CDOs which have a lot of exposure to the CDS market. There are also a lot of CDOs which have a lot of exposure to the subprime market. I just don’t think they’re the same CDOs.
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CDOs: Factchecking Krugman

Paul Krugman has a reasonably good overview
of the mess in the CDO market
today (free version here).
But he goes much too far when he tries to impress upon us how big the problem
is.
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Subprime Mess: It’s Not Derivatives’ Fault

Let’s not start blaming illiquid derivatives for Bear Stearns’ problems. Right now, illiquid derivatives are the least of anybody’s problems.
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Bloomberg Plays Gotcha with S&P

Bloomberg’s Mark Pittman isn’t hedging his bets in a story
headlined "S&P,
Moody’s Mask $200 Billion of Subprime Bond Risk
":
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Why Margin Calls Need Not Destroy the CDO Market

The
Epicurean Dealmaker
explains why I’m a bit too sanguine about the prospects
for the CDO market: it all comes down to margin calls.
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Unpacking the Risks in the CDO Market

There is cause for concern, to be sure. But there isn’t cause for panic.
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Posted in bonds and loans | 2 Comments

CDO Scaremongering, Ebola Edition

Tim Price is some
kind of genius
.
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Bear Stearns Funds: Is Everything OK Now?

After throwing the entire financial media (if not the actual markets) into a week-long tizzy, Bear Stearns seems to have found a way to stabilize things without committing too much of its own money and without subjecting its funds’ prime brokers to any losses.
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