Category Archives: economics

Payrolls: There’s More Rate Cuts Coming

I got a sad email from a friend at Morgan Stanley yesterday, talking of the hundreds of employees who were "marched out of the building" at 9:15 in the morning, part (one assumes) of the previously-announced headcount reduction. Morgan Stanley, … Continue reading

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Payrolls: Ignore Them If You Can

It’s a new month tomorrow, and it’s a Friday, which means it’s payrolls day. Sudeep Reddy has a good preview of what the jobs report might bring; forecasts range from a decrease of 125,000 (thank you Mish) to an increase … Continue reading

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What the Next President Needs to Know About the Economy

Read a book, save the economy! Floyd Norris is holding out some hope that his readers might be able to come up with a book or three that the next US president could read in order to understand "how the … Continue reading

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GDP Growth: Low, and Falling

We officially didn’t enter a recession in 2007: GDP growth for the fourth quarter was positive, albeit very low at 0.6%. The main engine of growth is still consumer spending, rather than exports, but it’s slowing, contributing 1.4 percentage points … Continue reading

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Retail Concepts and the Success of National Chains

When I’m given the choice – which is not very often, I must admit – I choose to spend/invest my money as close to home as possible. What does that mean, in practice? That I like to buy gifts from … Continue reading

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Debt and Equity: “Fundamentally the Same Thing”

On January 22, 2007, I wrote a slightly confused blog entry called "in defense of leverage", which tried to explain that debt and equity are not nearly as different as people often think. Exactly one year later, on January 22, … Continue reading

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What if the Bears are Right?

Let’s say – just for the sake of argument – that the bears are right, and that we’ve finally come to the end of a long capital-markets boom. Global equity markets are going to fall dramatically, thanks to falling corporate … Continue reading

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Davos: Bearishness Rules

I’ve only just arrived in Davos, and already I’m wondering how I’m going to be able to cope: the scene here is far crazier than at any other gabfest I’ve been to. The smart people just blow it off altogether … Continue reading

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The Politics of Equity Capital Inflows

If a country runs a current-account deficit, that means that it’s going to run an equal and opposite capital-account surplus: it’s simple economic mathematics. And when the federal budget deficit is a bit over 1% of GDP while the current-account … Continue reading

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Inflation Expectations: Coming Down

Back at the beginning of the year, I recommended putting in a non-competitive bid for 10-year TIPS at the January auction on January 10. Now that’s happened, I can link to the results: my hypothetical bid would have picked up … Continue reading

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The Argument for Neglecting Laid-Off Workers

Steven Landsburg has a provocative op-ed in the New York Times today. Essentially, he says that we should do absolutely nothing about American workers who are on the losing side of globalization: All economists know that when American jobs are … Continue reading

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The Economics of Cheap Sofas

Tim Harford on Ikea: When a typical London home costs £300,000, why are cheap sofas to put in it still such a tempting offering? Unfortunately, Harford doesn’t answer his own question. Maybe it’s precisely because houses are so expensive that … Continue reading

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Trading Recession Probabilities

According to InTrade, there’s a 58% chance that the US will see a recession in 2008. That number is higher than the 43% probability assigned to recession by economists polled by the WSJ. But there’s no real discrepancy there, says … Continue reading

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International Capital Flows Datapoint of the Day

The most money the IMF ever lent to the emerging world in one quarter: $13.7 billion (Q3, 2001) Total capital infusions from emerging-market sovereigns into US and European banks in Q4 2007: $28.4 billion (Via Setser, natch; he reckons that … Continue reading

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In Praise of a Pessimistic President

My favorite line from the NYT coverage of Bush’s speech on the economy: Still, Mr. Bush must be careful not to depress the economy with pessimistic talk, and so his speech in Chicago on Monday offered a delicate balancing act. … Continue reading

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Paulson’s Most Bearish Speech Ever

This is I think one of the most bearish speeches by a sitting finance minister I have ever read; I certainly can’t recall anything like it from any US Treasury Secretary. In it, Hank Paulson seems to be channelling Nouriel … Continue reading

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The Crisis Meme

The Russian crisis was a crisis, as was LTCM: both had very nasty global systemic implications. What we saw in 2007 was not a crisis.
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Exports to the Rescue?

Paul Krugman has an interesting chart, showing US exports rising even as residential investment has been falling. Indeed, he writes, “thanks to the weak dollar, they’ve risen almost enough to offset the housing plunge”. Now this is one of those … Continue reading

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Silly Idea of the Day: Grocession

Are you tired yet of the debate about whether or not we are in, or might even already have entered, a recession? Given that nobody knows and nobody can know, the whole thing seems a little bit pointless to me. … Continue reading

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The Economics of TV Advertising

Holly Sanders has found a TV paradox: as ratings fall, ad rates rise. Specifically, ad rates in both the fourth quarter and the first quarter are running 18% above their previous-year levels, even as ratings are 14% lower than they … Continue reading

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The Economics of Wine Prices

David Leonhardt says that we’re living in a “golden age of inexpensive wine,” and I’d agree, although I might take issue with anybody who describes Yellow Tail as “terrific”. I’d also agree with Leonhardt’s main point, which is that alcohol … Continue reading

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Merry Christmas! Buy a Lottery Ticket!

Market Movers wishes both all its readers a very merry Christmas. Today, I think, is a good day to go out and buy a lottery ticket. For one thing, buying lottery tickets can be an economically rational thing to do. … Continue reading

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The Denomination Fallacy, Coffee Edition

The denomination fallacy normally rears its economically-illiterate head with respect to oil prices. But in the Washington Post today, Anthony Faiola manages to apply it to coffee: For untold millions worldwide, the weak dollar has emerged as a troubling dark … Continue reading

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The Economics of Sports Writing

If you know many print journalists, you’ll know they love nothing more than complaining about how underpaid they are and how word rates for freelancers haven’t risen for half a century. So it’s mildly encouraging for all of us that … Continue reading

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The Economics of eBay

Aaron Schiff notes, quite rightly, that eBay uses anticompetitive tactics in order to retain its market share: One of the things that probably makes it hard to compete with eBay is that eBay ‘owns’ the reputations of its users. If … Continue reading

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