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Category Archives: emerging markets
Are We Facing a New Wave of Sovereign Bond Defaults?
Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff have a very peculiar op-ed in the WSJ today, warning of the risk that there will be another wave of emerging-market sovereign bond defaults. Now Rogoff, a former director of the IMF’s research department, is … Continue reading
Posted in bonds and loans, emerging markets
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Left-Wing Democracy in Action, Ecuador Edition
As you surely know, Ecuador is in the process of putting together a new constitution. And this week’s report on Ecuadorean politics and economics from Analytica Securities in Quito (you are on their email list, right?) outlines few of the … Continue reading
Posted in development, emerging markets, Politics
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The Risks of an Argentine Financial Crisis
Finally! A good old-fashioned emerging-market currency crisis! Well, possibly, anyway. The WSJ headline says it all: Argentines Rush to Buy Dollars Amid Fear of a Financial Crisis This, if it happens, will turn out to be the most-forecasted crisis in … Continue reading
Posted in emerging markets
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Zimbabwe Datapoint of the Day, Banknote Edition
How does one pay for a $340 million beer? With a half-a-billion-dollar banknote, of course. This is the fourth set of high denomination notes to be issued this year, the first being in January when a 10 million dollar note … Continue reading
Posted in emerging markets
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Zimbabwe Datapoint of the Day
Ian Brakspear: During the meal, one of my mates was drinking beer – 750ml bottles of Castle Lager (fondly called bombers) he ordered a 5th one, was advised that the price, which when he ordered his 1st, 2nd 3rd and … Continue reading
Posted in emerging markets
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The Brazilian Economic Miracle
There’s really nothing new in Matt Moffett’s front-pager on Brazil in today’s WSJ, but it’s worth a read anyway, especially if you haven’t been following the Brazil story very closely. My favorite phrase in the piece comes from the president … Continue reading
Posted in emerging markets
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Brazil Finally Gets its Investment-Grade Credit Rating
File under "about time too": Brazil has finally been upgraded to an investment-grade credit rating by S&P. The stock market hit a new record high in celebration, and the bonds tightened in even further: The yield to the 2015 call … Continue reading
Posted in emerging markets
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The Housing Crunch Without Houses
In an interactive feature of mine earlier this month, the most bubblicious bubble of them all was Astana, the new capital of Kazakhstan. Well, it seems to be bursting already: Bloomberg is running the wonderful headline "Kazakhs Get Craters, Not … Continue reading
Posted in emerging markets, housing
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Lacey Gallagher, RIP
I knew Lacey for many years, she was always vivacious and insightful. This is incredibly sad news, although not unexpected. Here is the memo which went out today from Mike Ryan and Bunt Gosh at her last employer, Credit Suisse. … Continue reading
Posted in emerging markets
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Brazil Datapoint of the Day
From Annelena Lobb: Brazil edged past China to become the largest emerging market in the world, as measured by Morgan Stanley Capital International’s emerging markets index. Brazil has a free-float market capitalization of $509.10 billion and comprises 14.95% of the … Continue reading
Posted in emerging markets
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Zimbabwean Dollar Website of the Day
It gives me great pleasure to announce that Market Movers has nabbed itself 11,000 valuable pixels on the Million Zimbabwean Dollar Homepage, for the bargain price of just $0.41, plus a $0.35 paypal fee. From the FAQ: 8. How long … Continue reading
Posted in emerging markets, foreign exchange
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Emerging Markets: Safer than Banks
I’m at the Fitch Latin America Sovereign Hotspots conference at the technologically-challenged Warwick Hotel this morning, where the irrepressibly quotable David Rolley, of Loomis Sayles, just appeared on a panel. Rolley’s always interesting, partly because he doesn’t confine himself to … Continue reading
Posted in bonds and loans, emerging markets
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World Bank Pays Off Nicaraguan Debt at 4.5 Cents on the Dollar
Here’s something which hasn’t got a lot of traction in the press: the World Bank has just spent $61 million on paying off a bunch of old Nicaraguan debt dating back to the late 1970s and early 1980s. The amount … Continue reading
Posted in bonds and loans, emerging markets, world bank
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Bonkers Idea of the Day, EM Debt Edition
One of the things I love about academic economists is that they have a certain amount of freedom to be utterly bonkers occasionally. The LSE’s Bernardo Guimaraes has a modest proposal up at Vox: rewrite the bonds of developing countries … Continue reading
Posted in bonds and loans, emerging markets
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The Emerging Markets Bubble
If the Fed’s cutting rates, then it must be blowing another bubble, right? But it’s not going to be tech stocks or housing again, so what’s left? Green technology, obviously, is bubblicious right now, but it’s also tiny: investment of … Continue reading
Posted in emerging markets
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Mexico’s Financial System: Strong, Not Weak
Joel Kurtzman has a rather needlessly
aggressive attack on those inefficient Mexcians on the op-ed page of today’s
WSJ.
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Posted in emerging markets
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Emerging Markets: Yields and Spreads
Alphaville’s Gwen Robinson has gotten
her hands on some research from CLSA’s Christopher Wood,
who foresees emerging-market debt yields even lower than the yields on US Treasury
bonds.
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Posted in bonds and loans, emerging markets, foreign exchange
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Corrupt Finance Minister Watch: Miceli Goes, Patino Stays
If you had to guess, a few weeks ago, which Latin finance minister would be
forced to resign in the wake of a corruption scandal, your answer would be very
easy: Ricardo Patiño of Ecuador, who was censured by
his own congress on Friday for insider dealing in his own country’s debt –
a deal which reportedly
netted investors more than $150 million, while Ecuador itself made a healthy
$50 million.
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Posted in defenestrations, emerging markets, governance
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Between the Cracks: Today’s $2 Billion Brazilian IPO
A consortium of three banks
in Brazil, including Citigroup, has just sold a
22% stake in Redecard, the Brazilian credit-card network, for $2.15 billion.
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Posted in emerging markets, stocks
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BRICs vs ICs
Justin Fox today lays
out the reasons why Brazil and Rusia pale in importance besides India and
China.
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Posted in emerging markets, stocks
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Argentina Quietly Starts Making Friends With Energy Companies
Everyone wins. The energy companies get the tariff increases they’ve long been demanding, Argentina gets the energy it needs, and Kirchner gets to keep the whole thing quiet.
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Posted in emerging markets
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Emerging Markets Reach Parity With Developed Markets
Emerging-market
equities are now trading at the same multiple as developed markets
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Posted in emerging markets, stocks
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Goldman in Moscow
Goldman Sachs is a formidable force wherever in the world it operates. So it’s
likely to do well in Moscow, where it’s now announced
plans to add another 25 bankers, at somewhere north of $5m per annum apiece.
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Posted in banking, emerging markets
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Argentina’s “Intergalactic Dead Cat Bounce”
Argentina has already seemingly violated numerous laws of economics: why shouldn’t it violate the laws of physics, too?
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Posted in emerging markets
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Ecuador: The Finance Minister, the Investment Banker, the Scandal, and Me
As far back as December I posted
a blog entry
at rgemonitor.com saying that "a devious Ecuadorean finance minister"
could make quite a lot of money by manipulating the CDS market.
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Posted in derivatives, emerging markets
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