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Category Archives: housing
Markets in Everything, Jingle Mail Edition
Are you stressed out about your mortgage payments? Do you have little or no equity in your home? Is your home sinking under the waves of the real estate crash? What if you could live payment free for up to … Continue reading
Posted in housing
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Ken Lewis’s Call Option on Countrywide
The most recent deal not going according to the merger-arb playbook is Bank of America’s acquisition of Countrywide. The takeover takeunder is valued at $6.47 per share, but Countrywide is trading at only $5.11. How come? Well, have a look … Continue reading
The Bonus Bet
Some loyal readers may recall that back in October I entered into a wager with Jesse Eisinger, who had written in Portfolio that "bonus season this year will make Montgomery Burns look generous". If aggregate Wall Street bonuses fell by … Continue reading
The Upside of Low Housing Starts
I’m a little bit confused about all the pessimism surrounding today’s housing starts figures. Yes, they’re low – but remember we’re talking about starts here: people and businesses brave or foolhardy enough to start building brand-new homes in an economic … Continue reading
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The End of Mortgage Brokers, Part 2
I got some very interesting responses to my blog entry yesterday on mortgage brokers, in which I basically said that they were parasites on their way out who wouldn’t be missed. Ken Houghton reckons that there must be some good … Continue reading
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The Economics of Second Liens
Ruth Simon has a huge piece in today’s WSJ on second liens: home equity loans and lines of credit which are junior to primary mortgages. These things can cause a lot of trouble for homeowners: "The people in the first … Continue reading
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Mortgage Brokers, RIP
"The broker model is broken," says Calculated Risk today, citing comments from Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan saying that delinquencies on broker-originated loans are three times higher than on loans originated in-house. What’s more, says Peter Paul Jackson of Housing … Continue reading
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Predatory Borrowers
Barry Ritholtz, econoblogger extraordinaire, fired harshly at Tyler Cowen, econoblogger extraordinaire, on Sunday, with a blog entry originally entitled "Tyler Cowen, Apologist for Fraud?". Ritholtz has since toned down the headline, but the substance of his criticism stands, and it’s … Continue reading
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BofA-Countrywide: The Main Street Implications
I’m going to be on Fox Business this afternoon at 4pm, talking about the Countrywide acquisition. Befitting the channel’s "Wall Street meets Main Street" concept, I’m sure they’re going to ask me less about the finances of the deal and … Continue reading
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Why BofA Bought Countrywide
Countrywide’s Angelo Mozilo has had many opportunities, over the years, to sell his company for a huge sum to Bank of America. There’s only one reason why he would say yes to a deal now, at $4 billion, when he … Continue reading
BofA-Countrywide: An Acquisition Which Makes Sense
Countrywide shares are up over 40% today as the WSJ reports the company might be taken over by Bank of America.
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The National Association of Realtors’ Fuzzy Math
This is the worst website I’ve seen in a very long time. For one thing, it’s one of those websites which starts talking at you the minute you load it: turn your speakers off before you go there, if you … Continue reading
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Will Buyout-Related Deals Flood the CMBS Market?
The CMBS market, where mortgages based on commercial paper office and retail space are traded – has been extremely quiet of late. Good prices are hard to find, but what’s clear is that the primary market has all but disappeared, … Continue reading
Posted in bonds and loans, housing
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Subprime: Gross Losses are Much Bigger Than Net Losses
I’d like to thank Floyd Norris for responding to my blog entry last week about one of his columns. Norris is a blogger in his own right, of course, but it’s always good to see venerable journalists venturing off their … Continue reading
Posted in foreign exchange, housing
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Jingle Mail, in Practice
A textbook case of jingle mail: I got an agreement of sale today from a realtor looking for a prequal on a shortsale , the buyer lives next door , he has a current mortgage for $800,000 on a home … Continue reading
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How I’ve Changed My Mind on Mortgages
The Edge Annual Question this year asks a group of (mostly) scientists what they have changed their mind about and why. I’m no scientist, but this is as good an opportunity as any to make explicit two things, both mortgage-related, … Continue reading
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The Economics of Non-Judicial Foreclosures
Have I mentioned of late how much I love my commenters? Many thanks to James Moore, who adds a very interesting twist to my obsession over the proportion of mortgages which are non-recourse. Moore gets straight to the heart of … Continue reading
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Are Subprime Losses Being Exaggerated?
John Berry dedicates his Bloomberg column today to debunking exaggerated estimates of the magnitude of the subprime crisis. $300 billion, he asks? $400 billion? Pshaw. A more realistic amount is probably half or less than those exaggerated projections — say … Continue reading
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Subprime: The Class Action Suits
NERA Economic Consulting has a new report out on class-action lawsuits. They dropped a lot from 2005 to 2006, but jumped back up again in 2007, thanks in part to 38 – count ’em – lawsuits relating to subprime lending. … Continue reading
The Subprime Boom: Was There a Silver Lining?
Paul Krugman, today: The explosion of “innovative” home lending that took place in the middle years of this decade was an unmitigated disaster… I use the words “unmitigated disaster” advisedly. Krugman says that the explosion in subprime lending did not … Continue reading
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The Problem of Artificially Inflated House Prices
Amidst all the breaking news today, you could be forgiven for not having time to notice the big WSJ article on kickbacks from property sellers to buyers – kickbacks which serve to overstate house-price indices and severely damage the balance … Continue reading
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Peter Schiff on the Housing Market and the Rescue Plan
I had some harsh words last week for Peter Schiff, which prompted a comment from Jack: Taking on Schiff? Get ready for a barrage of hate mail from him and his lackeys! In fact, I got no hate mail at … Continue reading
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US Government Finally Getting Serious About Mortgage Reforms
Tyler Cowen thinks that the Fed should not have a consumer-protection function. I’m largely sympathetic – it’s not as though there’s any shortage of other regulators in Washington who could pick up the slack – but in reality the Fed … Continue reading
Posted in housing, regulation
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How Cerberus’s Cost Cutting Threatens the US Economy
There’s bad news at Cerberus, and that could mean bad news for all of us. Cerberus has lost a lot of money on its mortgage-servicer investments, and is now hoping to merge its main mortgage asset, GMAC, with Chrysler’s lending … Continue reading
Posted in housing, private equity
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Home Equity: Down. Home Equity Withdrawals: Still High.
A major driver of the US economy in recent years has been home equity withdrawal – individuals tapping the equity in their homes to fuel consumption. Obviously, total home equity rises very quickly when house prices are rising, and it … Continue reading