Category Archives: insurance

Counterparty Risk Moves to the Fore

The best news to come out of the Fed meeting was that Tim Geithner wasn’t there. That means he was in New York, where he belongs, worrying about AIG and counterparty risk rather than macroeconomics and the Fed Funds rate. … Continue reading

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AIG Is Toast

How dangerous is AIG? Michael Lewitt tells us, in today’s NYT: There is a substantial possibility that A.I.G. will be unable to meet its obligations and be forced into liquidation. A side effect: Its collapse would be as close to … Continue reading

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AIG: The Mark-to-Lehman Market

Ooh now this is ugly. AIG shares are down 26% today to their lowest level in over 15 years; the firm’s credit default swaps are wider than Lehman’s. AIG was never known as much of a mortgage shop, but it’s … Continue reading

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Good News for Monolines Wanting to Settle their CDO Obligations

Whenever a debt issuer runs into distress, it’s a safe bet that there will be legal tussles between holders of junior and senior notes. CDOs are no exception, as Aline van Duyn reports today in the FT. But it turns … Continue reading

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MBIA Turns Thuggish

When it comes to the monolines, I’ve had quite a lot of sympathy for MBIA in general and for its CEO Jay Brown in particular. But if he carries on like this, that sympathy won’t last long: MBIA Inc. said … Continue reading

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Willumstad’s Hard Choice

AIG’s earnings yesterday were horrible, no doubt about it, and the stock market meted out condign punishment: American International Group Inc., the biggest U.S. insurer by assets, fell the most since going public in 1969 after writing down more than … Continue reading

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The Disastrous Future of the US

The insurance industry is fighting back against the kind of articles which accuse it of price-gouging, especially when it comes to natural disasters in general and hurricanes in particular. Yesterday Munich Re held a webinar for journalists, and wheeled out … Continue reading

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The Politics of Hurricane Insurance

MP McQueen has a front-page WSJ article today attacking property insurers for, um, well, it’s not entirely clear what they’re supposed to have done wrong. Apparently they use something called "computerized catastrophe modeling": Crafted by several independent firms and used … Continue reading

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Monoline Datapoint of the Day

Gari finds a gem in an FSA presentation: Of its roughly $19 billion investment portfolio, $13.5 billion is parked in residential mortgage-backed securities, and of those RMBS holdings, almost $8 billion is first lien subprime. Bill Ackman, as we all … Continue reading

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MBIA: Rosner’s Take

Josh Rosner got in touch after I said he was "full of crap" for saying that MBIA thinks it can’t make its obligations. He’s been talking to NYSID too, so I asked him to elaborate on exactly what he thought … Continue reading

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MBIA: Moody’s Twists the Knife

Ouch! This news is really bad for MBIA: Moody’s has slashed its ratings by even more than it cut the ratings on Ambac. It’s a deep cut, with real financial consequences: This ratings action will give certain holders of guaranteed … Continue reading

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MBIA: The View From New York State

I had a very interesting conversation with Hampton Finer of the New York State Insurance Department this afternoon, on the subject of MBIA. He’s a regulator, it’s his job to be worried about the entities he’s regulating. And when one … Continue reading

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MBIA vs Smith and Jones

With respect to MBIA’s attack on the NYT’s reporting, it’s clear at this point that the newspaper doesn’t need to defend itself: there’s no shortage of bloggers willing to do that for it. Yves Smith is probably the most vocal: … Continue reading

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MBIA vs NYT

MBIA is blogging! Or something very similar, in any event. The company has put up a 2,000-word response to this morning’s NYT article – the one which I was so skeptical about earlier. It’s entitled "New York Times Story Is … Continue reading

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More Alarmism Over MBIA

The NYT tells us in a headline today that "MBIA Debt Is Setting Up a Quandary". There’s real news here – that in practice it could be very difficult for New York’s insurance regulator, Eric Dinallo, to take over MBIA’s … Continue reading

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Whither Municipal Bond Insurance?

On Friday, I said that there’s a strong case to be made for the existence of municipal bond insurance, "since these bonds are generally bought by retail investors who can’t be expected to do sophisticated credit analysis". Commenter efranco then … Continue reading

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Martin Sullivan Deathwatch: It’s All Over Now

Liam Pleven, in the WSJ, seems almost sorry for AIG CEO Martin Sullivan, now he’s being fired: It’s not clear what a new chief executive, interim or permanent, can do to solve those problems amid ongoing upheaval in the mortgage … Continue reading

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Is There Hope Yet for MBIA?

I got a phone call Thursday afternoon from MBIA spokesman Kevin Brown. He mainly wanted to clear up one thing about my blog this morning: MBIA Insurance Corp is not, technically, "going into run-off". It’s just not writing much in … Continue reading

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Why MBIA’s Change of Plans Makes Sense

Yves Smith is very unhappy about the fact that MBIA isn’t throwing $1.1 billion of its shareholders’ money into the black hole that is its insurance subsidiary. She calls the decision "shameful" and "scandalous", but it seems simply sensible to … Continue reading

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The Monoline Downgrade Nonevent

How we’ve moved on from the Days of Panic: S&P today downgraded both Ambac and MBIA, and as of now (a couple of hours later) the news still hasn’t made it to the NYT’s business front page; on the wsj.com … Continue reading

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I Guess This Means AIG Stock Will Rise 10% Tomorrow

I’m with Megan Barnett on this one: the time to announce a 10% increase in your dividend is not when you’re simultaneously annoucing a $7.8 billion loss in a single quarter. Yes, $7.8 billion. I know we’re all getting inured … Continue reading

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The State of Catastrophe Bonds

The panel on catastrophe bonds coincided with the release of a Milken Institute report on the topic. Catastrophe bonds make a huge amount of sense, in theory. The cost of Hurricane Katrina was over $65 billion in insured losses alone. … Continue reading

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Buffett Caves

Well, that didn’t take long. A week ago the WSJ reported that Federal prosecutors were requesting the resignation of General Re CEO Joe Brandon; today it happened, despite Brandon’s having the strong support of his boss, Warren Buffett. I don’t … Continue reading

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Spitzer: The Monoline Angle

It looks very much as though Eliot Spitzer is toast right now: the NYT is reporting that he’s expected to resign this morning. If and when that happens, whither the monoline insurers? Gari does some analysis: It’s interesting to note … Continue reading

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Jay Brown, Blog Commenter

Remember how I liked the way that new MBIA CEO Jay Brown writes letters? Well he’s gone one better now, and actually started leaving comments on blogs – or at least a comment on Floyd Norris’s blog. Norris didn’t like … Continue reading

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