Category Archives: stocks

Silly Idea of the Day: Opening Foreign Brokerage Accounts

Abnormal Returns rarely criticises the stories it features in its invaluable daily linkfest. But today’s an exception: Color us skeptical that individual investors should be opening brokerage accounts around the world. (WSJ.com) Boy are they right to be skeptical. Armed … Continue reading

Posted in personal finance, stocks | Comments Off on Silly Idea of the Day: Opening Foreign Brokerage Accounts

Felix Salmon, Stock Picker

This is kinda funny. Some site called SocialPicks seems to have determined that I’m a stock picker, and that this post in particular constituted a sell recommendation on Lehman Brothers. Since Lehman’s gone up since then, my "All-time Return" is … Continue reading

Posted in stocks | Comments Off on Felix Salmon, Stock Picker

Unreal Rally

While I’ve been trying to catch up with my RSS feeds, Jeff Cane noticed that the stock market surged today, for no discernible reason. One big bank writes down $19 billion. Another shores up its capital to put to rest … Continue reading

Posted in stocks | Comments Off on Unreal Rally

How to Make Money from Losing Money, UBS Edition

UBS is the latest bank to see its share price rise in the wake of an absolutely enormous write-down. The $19 billion write-down announced today almost doubles the write-downs taken since the third quarter of 2007, and, in a move … Continue reading

Posted in banking, stocks | Comments Off on How to Make Money from Losing Money, UBS Edition

A Quick Note From Marfa

I said last week that BSC was going either to $2 or to $0. I regret the error.

Posted in stocks | Comments Off on A Quick Note From Marfa

Lehman: The Eisinger Effect

If you look at the one-day chart of Lehman’s stock price today, you’ll see that it was up a coupla bucks, happily crusing along, until early afternoon. Then, suddenly, in the last two hours of trading, Lehman’s stock skyrocketed in … Continue reading

Posted in banking, stocks | Comments Off on Lehman: The Eisinger Effect

Why It’s Safe to Bet Against Joe Lewis

Are you tantalized by the prospect of Slate’s new business site? Well, the editor, Jim Ledbetter, is guest-blogging over at Fortune today, so maybe that will give you an idea of what to expect. This morning, talking about the Bear … Continue reading

Posted in banking, stocks | Comments Off on Why It’s Safe to Bet Against Joe Lewis

Chart of the Day: Mastercard vs Visa

When Mastercard went public in May 2006 its opening price was $40.30 per share; today it’s over $200. What are the chances that something similar is going to happen with Visa? About zero: (Incidentally, American Express is worth about $48 … Continue reading

Posted in charts, stocks | Comments Off on Chart of the Day: Mastercard vs Visa

Bear Raid in the UK

Many people believe that Bear Stearns was brought down by a classic "bear raid" – where a rumor gets started, snowballs, and becomes self-fulfilling. In nervous markets, someone who shorts a bank and then starts a rumor that it’s in … Continue reading

Posted in banking, stocks | Comments Off on Bear Raid in the UK

Bear Stearns Shareholder Math

A lot of the back-of-the envelope sums surrounding the Bear Stearns shares assume that Bear’s employees, who own 30% of the outstanding stock, are likely to vote against a deal. But given that New York City’s comptroller has already started … Continue reading

Posted in banking, stocks | Comments Off on Bear Stearns Shareholder Math

Bear Stearns’s Share Price: It’s Not Speculators

That confounding Bear Stearns share price! Unsurprisingly, my explanation yesterday for why BSC was trading well above the offer price doesn’t seem to have persuaded everybody (or, frankly, anybody, really). It was mentioned by DealBook, but the "first best explanation" … Continue reading

Posted in banking, stocks | Comments Off on Bear Stearns’s Share Price: It’s Not Speculators

Explaining the Bear Stearns Share Price

If you head over here, David Neubert has a slightly cryptic explanation of why Bear Stearns shares are trading in the $7 range. After IMing with him, I think I’m clear on what he’s saying, so let me try to … Continue reading

Posted in banking, bonds and loans, stocks | Comments Off on Explaining the Bear Stearns Share Price

Open Questions About the JP Morgan-Bear Stearns Deal

Karen Donovan has a good story up about the complex deal to buy Bear Stearns, and all the high-powered legal advice which went into it. For all that legal firepower, however, the agreement seems pretty precarious: "Everything about this deal … Continue reading

Posted in banking, M&A, stocks | Comments Off on Open Questions About the JP Morgan-Bear Stearns Deal

The Price-to-Book League Table, Revisited

In today’s earnings report, Lehman Brothers reported that its book value rose one cent to $39.45 per share. The stock is doing great this morning, up $6 or so to $37.80, which puts Lehman on a price-to-book ratio of 0.96. … Continue reading

Posted in banking, stocks | Comments Off on The Price-to-Book League Table, Revisited

Why is Bear Stearns Trading at $5?

Bear Stearns shares are now trading at $5 apiece: clearly there’s a reasonably large constituency of investors who simply don’t believe that it’s going to be bought for $2 per share. This is definitely one of the weirder merger-arb situations … Continue reading

Posted in banking, stocks | 3 Comments

The Dow-S&P 500 Divergence

Financial sophisticates know that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a bit of a joke: it’s only 30 stocks, and it’s not even an index. But for historical reasons it retains a grip on the public imagination that the S&P … Continue reading

Posted in stocks | Comments Off on The Dow-S&P 500 Divergence

Lehman: Battered Hard

Now that European markets have closed, it seems that the US markets are taking a decided turn for the worse, with Lehman Brothers unsurprisingly leading the way down: it’s dropped more than 40% so far today and no one knows … Continue reading

Posted in banking, fiscal and monetary policy, stocks | Comments Off on Lehman: Battered Hard

Market Open: So Far So Good

So that’s not nearly as bad as it might have been. As of 10:00, the S&P 500 is down 1.6%, and the Dow is down less than 1%. JP Morgan is up – that’s really good news. The financials are … Continue reading

Posted in banking, stocks | Comments Off on Market Open: So Far So Good

Is Bear Really Worth Only $2 Per Share?

Around the world today, people are looking at each other with a semi-glazed expression on their face, and saying something along the lines of "Dude. $2 a share." As Dennis Berman says, this is what they call on the Street … Continue reading

Posted in banking, stocks | Comments Off on Is Bear Really Worth Only $2 Per Share?

Bad News for Bear Shareholders is Good News for the Markets

Two dollars per share is an astonishingly low price to pay for Bear Stearns: when I first saw it I honestly thought it was a misprint. If Bear is essentially worth nothing, that means other banks – Lehman seems to … Continue reading

Posted in banking, stocks | Comments Off on Bad News for Bear Shareholders is Good News for the Markets

Did the Fed’s Bear Bailout Prevent a Stock-Market Panic?

Willem Buiter explains today why he thinks the Bear bailout was unwarranted. I apologise for quoting at some length, but believe me, it’s a lot shorter than the 2,150-word blog entry: While the Fed, like any public institution, should support … Continue reading

Posted in banking, fiscal and monetary policy, stocks | Comments Off on Did the Fed’s Bear Bailout Prevent a Stock-Market Panic?

Whither Bear’s Chinese Billion?

Heidi Moore has the understatement of the day: CITIC has not yet closed its proposed investment in Bear, and today’s moves suggest that will be more difficult. Er, yes. Not least because at today’s closing price Citic’s proposed $1 billion … Continue reading

Posted in banking, stocks | Comments Off on Whither Bear’s Chinese Billion?

The Death of the Moral Hazard Play

Brad DeLong has a good point today: whatever happened to the moral hazard play? It’s an easy enough game: if you think a bank is going to get bailed out, you go long, safe in the knowledge that Ben Bernanke … Continue reading

Posted in banking, stocks | Comments Off on The Death of the Moral Hazard Play

John Mack: Overrated

Dan Colarusso takes his stiletto knife to John Mack today, and I’m very happy he did. As Dan shows, Mack has a long history of pulling defeat from the jaws of victory, and it’s far from obvious why he’s the … Continue reading

Posted in banking, stocks | Comments Off on John Mack: Overrated

The Price-to-Book League Table

It’s not just Bear Stearns which is trading below book value. Here are some closing prices from Yahoo Finance: Bank Price/Book Countrywide 0.19 Bear Stearns 0.73 Wachovia 0.74 Citigroup 0.93 JP Morgan Chase 1.06 Lehman Brothers 1.12 Bank of America … Continue reading

Posted in banking, stocks | Comments Off on The Price-to-Book League Table