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Category Archives: stocks
Silly Idea of the Day: Opening Foreign Brokerage Accounts
Abnormal Returns rarely criticises the stories it features in its invaluable daily linkfest. But today’s an exception: Color us skeptical that individual investors should be opening brokerage accounts around the world. (WSJ.com) Boy are they right to be skeptical. Armed … Continue reading
Posted in personal finance, stocks
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Felix Salmon, Stock Picker
This is kinda funny. Some site called SocialPicks seems to have determined that I’m a stock picker, and that this post in particular constituted a sell recommendation on Lehman Brothers. Since Lehman’s gone up since then, my "All-time Return" is … Continue reading
Posted in stocks
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Unreal Rally
While I’ve been trying to catch up with my RSS feeds, Jeff Cane noticed that the stock market surged today, for no discernible reason. One big bank writes down $19 billion. Another shores up its capital to put to rest … Continue reading
Posted in stocks
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How to Make Money from Losing Money, UBS Edition
UBS is the latest bank to see its share price rise in the wake of an absolutely enormous write-down. The $19 billion write-down announced today almost doubles the write-downs taken since the third quarter of 2007, and, in a move … Continue reading
A Quick Note From Marfa
I said last week that BSC was going either to $2 or to $0. I regret the error.
Posted in stocks
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Lehman: The Eisinger Effect
If you look at the one-day chart of Lehman’s stock price today, you’ll see that it was up a coupla bucks, happily crusing along, until early afternoon. Then, suddenly, in the last two hours of trading, Lehman’s stock skyrocketed in … Continue reading
Why It’s Safe to Bet Against Joe Lewis
Are you tantalized by the prospect of Slate’s new business site? Well, the editor, Jim Ledbetter, is guest-blogging over at Fortune today, so maybe that will give you an idea of what to expect. This morning, talking about the Bear … Continue reading
Chart of the Day: Mastercard vs Visa
When Mastercard went public in May 2006 its opening price was $40.30 per share; today it’s over $200. What are the chances that something similar is going to happen with Visa? About zero: (Incidentally, American Express is worth about $48 … Continue reading
Bear Raid in the UK
Many people believe that Bear Stearns was brought down by a classic "bear raid" – where a rumor gets started, snowballs, and becomes self-fulfilling. In nervous markets, someone who shorts a bank and then starts a rumor that it’s in … Continue reading
Bear Stearns Shareholder Math
A lot of the back-of-the envelope sums surrounding the Bear Stearns shares assume that Bear’s employees, who own 30% of the outstanding stock, are likely to vote against a deal. But given that New York City’s comptroller has already started … Continue reading
Bear Stearns’s Share Price: It’s Not Speculators
That confounding Bear Stearns share price! Unsurprisingly, my explanation yesterday for why BSC was trading well above the offer price doesn’t seem to have persuaded everybody (or, frankly, anybody, really). It was mentioned by DealBook, but the "first best explanation" … Continue reading
Explaining the Bear Stearns Share Price
If you head over here, David Neubert has a slightly cryptic explanation of why Bear Stearns shares are trading in the $7 range. After IMing with him, I think I’m clear on what he’s saying, so let me try to … Continue reading
Posted in banking, bonds and loans, stocks
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Open Questions About the JP Morgan-Bear Stearns Deal
Karen Donovan has a good story up about the complex deal to buy Bear Stearns, and all the high-powered legal advice which went into it. For all that legal firepower, however, the agreement seems pretty precarious: "Everything about this deal … Continue reading
The Price-to-Book League Table, Revisited
In today’s earnings report, Lehman Brothers reported that its book value rose one cent to $39.45 per share. The stock is doing great this morning, up $6 or so to $37.80, which puts Lehman on a price-to-book ratio of 0.96. … Continue reading
Why is Bear Stearns Trading at $5?
Bear Stearns shares are now trading at $5 apiece: clearly there’s a reasonably large constituency of investors who simply don’t believe that it’s going to be bought for $2 per share. This is definitely one of the weirder merger-arb situations … Continue reading
Posted in banking, stocks
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The Dow-S&P 500 Divergence
Financial sophisticates know that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a bit of a joke: it’s only 30 stocks, and it’s not even an index. But for historical reasons it retains a grip on the public imagination that the S&P … Continue reading
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Lehman: Battered Hard
Now that European markets have closed, it seems that the US markets are taking a decided turn for the worse, with Lehman Brothers unsurprisingly leading the way down: it’s dropped more than 40% so far today and no one knows … Continue reading
Posted in banking, fiscal and monetary policy, stocks
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Market Open: So Far So Good
So that’s not nearly as bad as it might have been. As of 10:00, the S&P 500 is down 1.6%, and the Dow is down less than 1%. JP Morgan is up – that’s really good news. The financials are … Continue reading
Is Bear Really Worth Only $2 Per Share?
Around the world today, people are looking at each other with a semi-glazed expression on their face, and saying something along the lines of "Dude. $2 a share." As Dennis Berman says, this is what they call on the Street … Continue reading
Bad News for Bear Shareholders is Good News for the Markets
Two dollars per share is an astonishingly low price to pay for Bear Stearns: when I first saw it I honestly thought it was a misprint. If Bear is essentially worth nothing, that means other banks – Lehman seems to … Continue reading
Did the Fed’s Bear Bailout Prevent a Stock-Market Panic?
Willem Buiter explains today why he thinks the Bear bailout was unwarranted. I apologise for quoting at some length, but believe me, it’s a lot shorter than the 2,150-word blog entry: While the Fed, like any public institution, should support … Continue reading
Posted in banking, fiscal and monetary policy, stocks
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Whither Bear’s Chinese Billion?
Heidi Moore has the understatement of the day: CITIC has not yet closed its proposed investment in Bear, and today’s moves suggest that will be more difficult. Er, yes. Not least because at today’s closing price Citic’s proposed $1 billion … Continue reading
The Death of the Moral Hazard Play
Brad DeLong has a good point today: whatever happened to the moral hazard play? It’s an easy enough game: if you think a bank is going to get bailed out, you go long, safe in the knowledge that Ben Bernanke … Continue reading
John Mack: Overrated
Dan Colarusso takes his stiletto knife to John Mack today, and I’m very happy he did. As Dan shows, Mack has a long history of pulling defeat from the jaws of victory, and it’s far from obvious why he’s the … Continue reading
The Price-to-Book League Table
It’s not just Bear Stearns which is trading below book value. Here are some closing prices from Yahoo Finance: Bank Price/Book Countrywide 0.19 Bear Stearns 0.73 Wachovia 0.74 Citigroup 0.93 JP Morgan Chase 1.06 Lehman Brothers 1.12 Bank of America … Continue reading