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Category Archives: stocks
Crazy Like a Bear
Bear Stearns stock first traded this week at $70.28 a share. Earlier today it was at $50.48 a share: basically a $20 drop in the space of three and a half trading sessions. Right now, it’s at $54.68, which puts … Continue reading
Stock Volatility Datapoint of the Day, Part 2
You might have noticed some large moves in the stock market today: the Dow rose over 400 points. Is this an Important Event, or is it just market noise? Commenter Danw thinks it’s the former, telling me that I am … Continue reading
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Stock Volatility Datapoint of the Day
Bear Stearns stock today has traded between a high of $68.24 (before the Fed’s new facility was announced) and a low of $55.42. That’s an intraday move of $12.82 per share, or more than 23% of Bear’s value at its … Continue reading
SocGen gets its New Equity Capital with Ease
The €5.5 billion SocGen rights offering has received more than €10 billion in demand, putting to rest any doubt about the bank’s ability to survive the Kerviel crisis – and also proving that banks have more options than simply running … Continue reading
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Stocks: Risky, But Tempting
On Friday, I got an email from my friend James: If you had some $ to invest now, where would you put them? I’m considering going long some equities, but its a nauseating market out there… in the financials, does … Continue reading
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Blackstone Datapoint of the Day
Blackstone’s shares fell below the $14 level earlier today, in the wake of a dreadful earnings report showing a net loss of $170 million in the fourth quarter. At $14 a share, it’s worth remembering, it would take a rise … Continue reading
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Merrill’s Financing Strategy: Harming Shareholders
A bank issues a bond, which has a maturity date. When the bond matures, the bank needs to essentially roll over the debt: it issues a new bond for the same amount of money, at (these days) a higher interest … Continue reading
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Retail Sales and the Weather
Parija Kavilanz is excited about retail sales reports: A surprising rebound in February sales gave retailers a much-needed respite after a very difficult winter sales season that had pointed convincingly to a pullback in consumer spending. "It’s very interesting that … Continue reading
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China IPO Datapoint of the Day
Helen Thomas keeps an eye on the China Railway IPO: The Hong Kong retail portion of the $5.5bn dual listing was 250 times oversubscribed – representing orders worth about $58bn. And this in a market which is far from surging: … Continue reading
Google: Expensive, or Cheap?
Herb Greenberg poses the conundrum, which I’ve translated into table form. Date Price p/e ratio IPO: August 2004 $100 52.3 July 2006 $386 65.3 March 2008 $444 23.6 By historical standards, the Four Horsemen are trading on very, very low … Continue reading
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Healthy Stocks, Unhealthy Economy
Warren Buffett loves to talk about "moats": things which protect his portfolio companies from competition. And his core business – reinsurance – has some of the highest barriers to entry in the world. Chris Dillow takes these ideas to their … Continue reading
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Citi Trading Below Book
Citigroup stock fell below book value yesterday – which is either despite or because of a long series of write-downs which served to lower that very value. Citi’s market capitalization is now $115 billion, which compares to, say, $177 billion … Continue reading
Stocks: Lots of Room to Fall
Tony Jackson has a good overview of the divergence between the stock market and the bond market. In Europe, the iTraxx Europe index of investment-grade credits has hit an all-time high of 138bp, which seems like a screaming buy over … Continue reading
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A Bear Market for IPOs
Justin Fox reckons that the present financial crisis can’t be all that bad if it’s coinciding with the biggest IPO in US history – especially when that IPO (Visa) is a financial one. It’s a good point, but it’s also … Continue reading
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Warren Buffett: No Foe of Sovereign Wealth Funds
Warren Buffett, in his annual letter to shareholders: There’s been much talk recently of sovereign wealth funds and how they are buying large pieces of American businesses. This is our doing, not some nefarious plot by foreign governments. Our trade … Continue reading
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Apple Buybacks: Still a Bad Idea
Back in December, I wasn’t a fan of Apple buying back its stock. I’m still not a fan, despite the fact that Apple stock has dropped 40% since then and the fact that Arik Hesseldahl says that a buyback is … Continue reading
Posted in stocks, technology
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The Unjustified Google Panic
Remember the panic which ensued when comScore announced that Google’s paid-click rate was declining? Henry Blodget went so far as to call it a "Google Disaster", and the shares plunged. But it turns out that the comScore data aren’t nearly … Continue reading
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Are Equities Attractive?
Brad DeLong thinks that stocks look attractive over the long run, and has written a paper to that effect: As of this writing the annual earnings yield on the value-weighted S&P composite index is 5.53%. This is a wedge of … Continue reading
The Psychology of Google Stock
When do stock investors feel good? Kevin Maney thinks it’s when their holdings have gone up in value: Google shares are off their highs by so much, the AP writes today that Google’s "once-robust stock is looking haggard." Haggard? Well, … Continue reading
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Charitable Donations: The Next Backdating Scandal?
Are CEOs backdating charitable stock donations? They might well be, according to Zubin Jelveh, who has been talking to NYU professor David Yermack: Yermack estimates that while most of the 90 chief executives and chairmen in his sample are playing … Continue reading
Visa IPO to Help Recapitalize US Banks
The Visa IPO, which could raise as much as $18.8 billion, is going to dwarf what until now was the largest IPO in US stock market history, AT&T Wireless’s $10.6 billion offering at the height of the dot-com boom in … Continue reading
Chart of the Day: Stock-Bond Divergence
This is from a Goldman Sachs research report dated yesterday. The details: We compare the investment grade CDX spread to the implied volatility of a 25 delta put of an equal weighted basket of the stocks represented in the CDX … Continue reading
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Michelle Leder is a National Treasure
Roberta Yafie explains today how US bankruptcy judge Robert Drain slashed an $87 million bonus plan for Delphi executives to "just" $16.5 million. But don’t think they haven’t hidden all manner of other egregious overpayments in their 10-K: CEO Rodney … Continue reading
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Crocs: On the Down Escalator
Crocs, manufacturers of extraordinarily ugly popular shoes, released spectacular fourth-quarter earnings yesterday afternoon, with both revenue and earnings almost doubling their levels from a year previously. Obviously no one’s particularly worried about the escalator problem. The stock, however, is down … Continue reading
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